第1章洪水风险管理|Flood risk management

Chapter 1Flood risk management

A flood is a very simple natural phenomenon that occurs when a body of water rises to overflow land that is not normally submerged (Ward,1978) At the same time,a flood is a very complex phenomenon that connects the natural environment,people,and the social systems of their organization Flooding causes loss of human life It damages infrastructure such as roads,bridges,and buildings,and hurts agricultural productivity because of lost crops and soil erosion Flood disaster relief often requires enormous funding Connectivity increases risksAs more links are present among the elements of natural,social,and technological systems,these systems develop unexpected patterns of connections that make breakdown more likelyWe are witnessing many catastrophic flood disasters European floods in 2002 caused more than 7 billion damage Hurricane Katrina caused flooding in 2005 that was the costliest natural disaster,as well as one of the five deadliest,in the history of the USA At least 1,836 people lost their lives in the actual hurricane and in the subsequent floods; total property damage was estimated at US$81 billion In June of 2006,northeastern Bangladesh disappeared under monsoon floods as rains drenched the region The floods stretched across hundreds of kilometers of what had been dry land a month earlier and inundated two thirds of the territory of the country Typhoon Morakot of 2009 was the deadliest typhoon to impact Taiwan in recorded history It created catastrophic damage in Taiwan,leaving 461 people dead and 192 others missing,and roughly US$33 billion in damage The storm produced huge amounts of rainfall,peaking at 2,777 mm (1093 in) The extreme amount of rain triggered enormous mudslides and severe flooding throughout southern Taiwan One mudslide buried the entire town of Xiaolin,killing an estimated 500 people In the wake of the flood,Taiwans President Ma Yingjeou faced extreme criticism for the slow response to the disaster,having initially deployed only roughly 2,100 soldiers to the affected regions Later additions of troops increased the number of soldiers to 46,000 The 2010 China floods began in early May The total death toll as of August 5 was 2,507 More than 305 million people in 28 provinces,municipalities,and regions were affected,while at least 12 million people had been evacuated because of the risk of flooding and landslides by early August As I am writing these words,Pakistans deadliest floods in decades have killed more than 1,500 people and overwhelmed government efforts to provide aid The floods death toll may rise to 3,000 Approximately 20 million people had been affected by floods by early August Regions downstream in the Indus River valley,where most of Pakistans 162 million people live,are bracing for floods that may damage crops

第1章洪水风险管理

洪水是一种非常简单的自然现象。当洪水发生时，水体水位升高淹没平常不受淹的陆地(Ward,1978)。同时，洪水也是一种非常复杂的现象，与自然环境、人类及其社会组织体系有密不可分的关系。洪水泛滥会导致人员伤亡，也会毁坏基础设施，例如道路、桥梁和建筑物等，并因土壤侵蚀、农作物受损而破坏农业生产力。减轻洪灾往往需要巨大的投入。现代社会多个系统之间的连通性使得洪水风险大大增加。随着自然、社会和科技系统中各单元之间的联系越来越多，这些系统间连接的故障就更可能呈现突发的模式。我们见证过很多大洪灾： 2002年欧洲大洪水造成70亿欧元的损失。2005年卡特里娜飓风引发的洪灾造成了最为严重的经济损失，这场灾难也是美国历史上伤亡最重的五大灾难之一。在飓风灾害和随后的洪灾中，至少有1836人死亡，总资产损失估计达到810亿美元。2006年6月，因为持续的降雨，孟加拉国东北部变成了一片泽国。洪水淹没的区域纵深达几百公里，将一个月前还安然无恙的陆地全部淹没。此次洪灾使得孟加拉国2/3的领土被淹。2009年的莫拉克台风是中国台湾有记录以来最致命的一场台风，带来了灾难性的破坏，共有461人死亡，192人失踪，经济损失达33亿美元。风暴使得降雨量激增，较大降雨量达2777 mm(1093 in)。极端降雨引发了台湾南部严重的泥石流和洪水灾害，其中，小林村整个村子都被泥石流掩埋，估计死亡500人。洪水暴发后，台湾当局领导也因对灾害救援反应迟缓而饱受批评。灾害发生后，政府仅仅出动2100名士兵前往灾区救援，难以满足救灾需求，所以又增援士兵46000人。2010年中国大陆的洪水始于5月，至8月5日死亡人数已达2507人，28个省、自治区和直辖市受灾，受影响人口达305亿人。截至8月初，中国至少有1200万人因洪水和滑坡风险而被迫撤离。就在我写这本书的时候(2010年，译者注)，巴基斯坦发生了近几十年来最严重的洪灾，死亡人口超过1500人，政府的救灾努力收效甚微。洪灾导致的死亡人口总数可能将达到3000人，截至2010年8月初，受洪灾影响的人口约为2000万人。Indus河下游地区有162亿巴基斯坦人及大片的农田随时可能被洪水淹没。